Oil has an expiration date. Long have scientists claimed that we will see the depletion of oil in our lifetimes, but in reality we have a more pressing problem than this. It’s called ‘Peak Oil’ and many scientists think we may have already reached it.
Put simply, peak oil is the point at which our oil reserves have reached their highest output and after this point begin to decrease. And to put our current situation into perspective, 33 of the largest 48 oil-producing nations have already hit peak oil and are decreasing in their production of oil.
The debate around the timing of peak oil was kicked into overdrive a week ago when two whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency (the people who forecast our oil reserves and usage) revealed that the IEA had increased their forecasts so as not to scare the global financial markets. Three days later, researchers at Uppsala University in Sweden published a report that proves that the IEA’s forecast figures are wrong.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to accurately predict the remaining global oil supply as there are many different actors involved, all with financial interests best served by keeping the data secret. If the oil companies revealed their supply data giving us an accurate picture of how much is left, it is likely that we would begin to move away from oil as the supply runs out, resulting in lower oil prices. However, by keeping their supply secret the oil companies are able to charge full price until the last drop runs dry.
It is obvious that the IEA has lost much of its credibility in the forecasting of oil figures, and without a reliable source it will be difficult to plan for our future energy consumption. But what does peak oil mean for us in the UK? And assuming we are on the brink of peak oil, what can we expect to see in the near future?
The UK currently sits on the far end of an oil pipeline that comes from the Middle East. We have little oil reserves of our own and in a global energy crisis we will probably be hit sooner than those countries in central Europe. Already we have seen countries in similar energy situations as ours begin emergency measures to slash their dependence on foreign oil. The government of Cuba has ordered the closing of all non-essential factories and workshops throughout the winter, as they enter a “critical” energy situation.
Unlike America, the UK’s presence in the Middle East is unlikely to secure our supply of oil in a crisis. We have already seen fluctuations in the price of oil over the last year and these will probably continue and increase in frequency as the market responds to shortness in oil supply.
The future of oil is unsure. However, if the revelations from the two whistleblowers inside the IEA are anything to go by, our future dependence on oil is fast approaching an end. And as the crisis becomes more apparent over the next few years, governments around the world will be forced to take increasingly drastic action to secure their energy needs.